Trust your gut (with data)
How do you know when to trust your gut?
For the last seven and a half years, I’ve been building a budgeting and forecasting tool called Model Wiz.
I’ve put hundreds of thousands of dollars into it, along with thousands of hours of work. I even had a heated debate with our CTO about which feature to release next minutes before my wedding began (seriously).
The tool helped me scale my firm to seven figures. So when I released it to the public about 18 months ago, I believed I’d found something other people would want just as badly.
But right now, we’re roughly breaking even, and growth feels painfully slow.
That disconnect is frustrating. How can I believe in something this strongly, have seen it work in my own firm, and still be struggling to get it into other people’s hands?
Recently, a coach gave me an assignment I wish I’d started sooner: have 200 conversations with prospective customers. Don’t pitch. Just ask how they solve the problem today, and listen.
I’m about halfway through. Some conversations have strengthened my conviction. Others have made me question things I was sure I knew.
What your gut can’t tell you
Most big decisions begin with a feeling in your gut. That feeling can give you the conviction to leave a job, start a business, or pursue an idea long before you have proof it will work.
But your gut is less reliable when the decision depends on other people. Will customers pay for this? Will you enjoy the career you’re considering? Will a new way of working actually help your team? Those are questions you can investigate.
My experience building financial models gave me a strong reason to create Model Wiz. It couldn’t tell me whether other people experienced the problem the same way, or wanted the solution I’d imagined.
That’s where data helps. It can reveal the assumptions you’ve stopped noticing. Without it, you can spend years getting better at solving a problem that matters far more to you than it does to anyone else.
But data has limits, too. One person’s opinion isn’t a trend, and even a hundred conversations won’t make the decision for you. People can tell you what frustrates them today; they can’t always imagine a better way of doing things.
So how do you strike that balance?
Your 200 conversations
You can use this approach whenever your instincts matter, but there’s something you don’t yet know. A career move, a new business, or a change in how you work can all benefit from testing your assumptions with people who have firsthand experience.
Here’s how I’d approach those conversations:
Step 1: Identify who has the answer to your question
Your time and energy are limited. Start with people who have lived through the decision and can tell you what it was actually like.
When I considered leaving my Big Four job to start a company, I asked myself: who is living the financial life I hope to have one day? That helped me identify people whose experience I wanted to learn from.
Step 2: Ask to learn, not to pitch
People have an aversion to being sold to. Tell someone what you’re trying to figure out, why you value their experience, and ask for 20 minutes. With Model Wiz, I’m asking prospective customers to help me understand how they work today. I’m not asking them to sit through a pitch.
Step 3: Ask questions that can change your mind
This has been one of the hardest parts for me. Early on, I’d ask, “Would you find it valuable if we built ___?” I thought I was gathering feedback, but I was inviting people to agree with an idea I’d already formed.
Now I ask what they’re doing today, where they struggle, and what they’ve tried. If I’m asking about a career decision, I want to know what surprised someone after they made it, including what they wish they’d understood beforehand.
You don’t need exactly 200 conversations. You need enough honest ones to see where your assumptions hold up, where they don’t, and what you’re willing to do with what you’ve learned.
So what have my conversations revealed so far? Three things have surprised me:
Some people are using AI in sophisticated ways that reduce their need for additional software.
People want the ease of editing a forecast outside Excel, alongside the transparency and traceability of an Excel file.
Many don’t want to learn a whole new system. They want to give the one they already use superpowers.
I don’t have all the answers yet. But I’m finding out which assumptions deserve another look while I still have time to do something about them.
So maybe you can help me…If you’re involved in budgeting or forecasting, how are you doing it today, and what’s the most frustrating part? Hit reply and tell me. I’m listening.
Have a great weekend.
I recommend enjoying it, but you should probably get a second opinion 😜
Josh (Your CFO Guy)
Thanks for reading my article. My goal is to help you grow in your career with proper Finance and Accounting.
If we're not already connected on Social media, let's get connected and send me a message to say hi. I promise to respond
